Nahaz on predicting all 8 Kiev Major invites: 'I tried to follow the chain of logic that I think Valve has used in the past'

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Thumbnail image courtesy of Helena Kristiansson / ESL

Alan "Nahaz" Bester is a Dota 2 statistician, analyst and economics professor. Though he hasn't appeared at a LAN in some time, he correctly predicted all eight invites to the upcoming Kiev Major.

Shortly after the Kiev Major invites were announced, Nahaz spoke to theScore esports about predicting the Major and the upcoming Kiev regional qualifiers.

First off, congratulations for predicting all eight invites for the Kiev Major.

Thanks. It was bound to happen one of these days right? The irony is that I swore myself to never try and predict Valve invites again. But this time around, you know, you take a shot and every so often you hit.

How long did it take you to prepare for the invite predictions? How much research went into them?

A couple of hours of work. I sort of have all of this stuff floating around in my head and it's just a matter of organizing it and putting it down. At this point, for Dota, it's a lot like writing a lecture for a class. I've taught a lot of different things at this point in my career, I sort of have it all running around up in my head and it's just a matter of getting it all down and organizing a set of slides. That's kind of the same thing when I'm making these little Dota shows.

I know that for your final invite, you weren't really sure if it would be Team VG.J. You also thought it could be Faceless or TNC. Were you surprised by the lack of an SEA invite?

No. So that was kind of, when I put the predictions together, I tried to follow the chain of logic that I think Valve has used in the past. Valve is very much... if we invite this team we feel that we have to invite that team. And that's what exactly led to the 12 invite to Manila. The way I looked at it, Icefrog has always given a lot of respect to Chinese rosters with a lot of star power. VG.J, they did look very good at StarLadder, they passed the sort of eye test in getting by a lot of good teams. And if you're going to invite Wings, who obviously are the reigning TI champions, but really haven't achieved a level we expected since TI, I thought they would feel that they would have to invite a team from the same region that has the same level of talent and star power but has been red hot recently.

As for SEA, you look at Fnatic and the MVP Phoenix rosters that finished in the top of several consecutive Major's. And it's not just that those players aren't on those teams anymore, most of those players aren't even in the region anymore. I believe that the five players that competed for Fnatic and MVP Phoenix, I would say over half of them are competing in other regions. I do think SEA will be back, it's a natural part of the region's evolution. I compared it in the video to things like Chinese basketball and Japanese and Korean baseball, coming over and competing in American leagues. I do think that eventually you'll see some of those players come back, there'll be some more resources flowing into the region, but right now the region is pretty naturally down because they've had all their top talent culled.

We could see QO coming back to a SEA team since WanteD disbanded. I imagine if Team Secret continues to perform as they are, that roster could part ways.

The two teams that I think are on a lot of people's minds right now, and I got a lot of, justifiably, a lot of flak for not mentioning in the video were Secret and Virtus.pro. Secret, I mean, nobody quite knows what's going on with them right now and when you look at their replays, it's not just their problems gelling together. Team Liquid had problems gelling together at first, and that's natural. But Secret hasn't shown the kind of steady improvement. A hallmark of Puppey teams is that you know how he is going to beat you. It's not necessarily the same, with all of the different rosters, but within a given roster, Puppey always has a paradigm. He always has a philosophy, he always has a way that his team is going to win. And I don't see that with Secret right now, I don't see the answer to the question, "How are they going to beat people?"

And similarly with VP, they had a sequence of unfortunate events where they struggled a bit at ESL One Genting. And then I believed they were DDOSed in their appearance in the DAC qualifiers, ended up have to forfeit the match against Funnik's and Scandal's LQ team and that's a huge blow to them. Because VP is a team that has, in the past, shown flashes of brilliance but hasn't really been able to sustain that momentum and consistency. I've actually talked to Solo about this a couple of times. They feel like they've got the talent and they feel like they've got the mastery of the meta, but for whatever reason, the team really struggles to find consistency.

Do you agree with Valve's format with the qualifiers with two spots for China and SEA and one spot for everything else?

Given that you are going to have eight direct invites in a 16-team field, I don't know how else you're going to do it. That's the problem. There are a lot of very easy criticisms. Probably the biggest valid criticism is the one bid going to EU, which even after you take OG, Liquid and Ad Finem off the top, is still going to be an incredibly strong and incredibly competitive region. But, give me another solution. I don't think you cut down SEA or China down to one. Those regions didn't get touched, didn't get divided, and you have the same number of teams competing at they've had in the past there. So again, if there were a way to have done it, I would have like to have seen six direct invites so that you could keep, EU especially, at two qualification spots. The more I kicked it around in my head, in making the video, if I were doing it I would have invited seven teams. VG.J would have not gotten the direct invite, and I would have cut it off after Newbee. I would have had 2-2-2, for SEA,China and EU, and one spot for the other three. But as I was making the video I thought that there was no way Valve would have really done it, so I didn't mention it.

I think if you look at the quality of tournaments in the past, all of the data that we have about the Majors, you want fewer automatic spots and more qualified teams. If you look at the record of qualified teams and doing well and winning at these events. On the other hand, Valve doesn't have a format for a reason. They don't say there will be X number of bids, and if you finish in the top Y you automatically get a bid.

They don't do that, and they don't do that for a reason. They put a lot of stock in their own subjective stock in the valuation of teams and they value the ability to say, "We really want to invite Wings and Ad Finem even though they haven't been the most dominant teams between Boston and now. But if we invite those teams, who do we invite based on more recent results?" They're a big fan of that kind of organic reason, and if you look at the material that they've put out for their employees that's public, what little of it there is, you get that vibe out of Valve. You get that they value organic, iterative, decision making.

Preston Dozsa is a news editor for theScore esports. You can follow him on Twitter.

Green Bay Packers LB Blake Martinez reveals the 4 NFL players he would form a Dota 2 team with, how Dota has helped him with football

by 1d ago
Thumbnail image courtesy of Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport / Getty

On any given Sunday, Blake Martinez can be found tackling ball carriers at the frozen tundra known as Lambeau Field. But in his spare time, the Stanford alumnus turned Green Bay Packers linebacker likes to kick back and relax by streaming Dota 2 matches for charity.

Related: Packers LB Blake Martinez: 'I want to speak to our president about sponsoring [an esports] team in the near future'

But Martinez's Dota fandom far exceeds loading into a couple of solo queue games a night. In fact, the young linebacker actively follows the competitive scene and, considering that he named the original No Diggity squad as his favorite professional team coupled with the fact that he participated in and helped cast MoonDuckTV's Kiev Major Qualifier Hub, he's far from a casual.

So naturally, when asked which four NFL players he would draft to his Dota 2 team, it came as no surprise that he picked the reigning Superbowl MVP, one of NFL's most fearsome defensive linemen and two of his Green Bay teammates to play alongside him.

"I would pick Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Mason Crosby, and Ndamukong Suh," he told theScore esports.

"Aaron would be our mid laner and shot caller of the game because of his smarts and skill! Also, he would pick up on Dota quickly. Tom would be the support (Position 4) because his vision is so good we would never get caught out and could make plays as Earth Spirit. Mason would be our position 5 support because he would be able to have a ton of time to strategize since all he does is kick at practice. And Suh would be our beefy offlaner/frontliner like Centaur and Axe that no one could get passed. EZ TI win."

Sure, Dota 2 and football are two very different games, but Martinez does think there are some similarities and even goes as far as to credit Dota with some of his growth as a leader.

"I think the ability to communicate and process a lot of information quickly is the two traits/skills that are extremely similar in both Dota and Football! I think Dota has helped me tremendously in just being a better leader for our defense," he said.

Touching on his rookie season, Martinez said he was encouraged by the way his year turned out — he notched 69 combined tackles to go along with one sack, one interception and four pass deflections — and looks to build on last season as he heads into his sophomore year.

"I think it went really well! It sucked to get injured near the end of the season but excited to grow from my rookie year! The way I want to grow is just seeing formations and plays quicker, stay healthy, get stronger and faster, and improve on the mistakes I made as a rookie and just grow from my experiences."

Daniel Rosen is a news editor for theScore esports. You can follow him on Twitter.

Sean Tepper is the Senior Supervising Editor at theScore esports. You can follow him on Twitter.

Conrad Janzen on Dota 2's top-heavy scene: 'I would just love to see more tier 2 support'

by 2d ago
Thumbnail image courtesy of Valve

Conrad Janzen, former Cloud9 player manager and current Twitch partnerships team member, has a few ideas.

Appearing on theScore esports Podcast Monday, Janzen spoke on everything from why he thinks The International’s prize pool will break its own record (again) this year, to how Valve can improve the Major system.

When asked about whether the prize pool for TI7 would exceed TI6’s massive $20.7 million purse, Janzen said the company behind Dota 2 would find a way to make it happen.

“If I had to bet on Valve, it’s always going to be more and they’re going to figure out some way to do it,” he said.

“Valve is going to figure out ways to steal money from my wallet every year in the best way possible,” he said. “They do a really good job of providing value and that’s the one thing I think Dota does a really good job compared to a lot of other free to play games as well as just games in general."

It's all about making the existing player base happy, he said.

“They provide a lot of value to their hardcore users, to their regular users and there’s always going to be somebody who’s willing to spend even more than I think I do.”

Janzen also commented on the Major system, saying that although it was overall beneficial to the Dota 2 scene, is isn’t not without its shortcomings.

“It is bad in some ways, I think it does hurt third parties,” he said.

“Obviously last year we saw Boston Major take precedence over DreamHack, and that was a very unfortunate case.” One solution, he said, would be to model things more closely on Counter-Strike’s tournament structure.

“Things I would like to see is maybe make the qualifiers more valuable, make them a LAN event very similar to CS:GO, right? Where you have all these teams coming in so it’s truly international,” he told theScore esports Podcast.

“What Valve is going to have to do in this case is take a step forward and be like, ‘This is an important part, we want to grow Dota as a whole.' So, very similar to the CS:GO system where they have a regional qualifier that mostly takes place online, and then they bring all those teams together to a major qualifying tournament,” he said.

Improving the Major structure would help showcase rising Dota talent that, at least right now, is getting lost in the shadows beyond the Majors' spotlight.

“I would just love to see more tier 2 support,” he said. “I think that’s the big thing we’re missing, is these up-and-coming stars are not getting as revealed as they used to be. In-house leagues, these sort of concepts, have disappeared," he said.

“To have a healthy, growing esport, you’re going to have to support those tier 2 players as well with smaller Cups, smaller tournaments.”

Colin McNeil is a supervising editor for theScore esports. You can follow him on Twitter.

EPICENTER's second Dota 2 tournament announced for June 4-11

by 3d ago
Thumbnail image courtesy of EPICENTER

EPICENTER: Moscow returns with its second Dota 2 event, slated to take place June 4-11, the tournament organizer announced on Wednesday.

The event will see 10 teams compete for a $500,000 prize pool, with qualifiers being held in the European, CIS, North American and Chinese regions in a similar format to the first EPICENTER: Moscow event.

EPICENTER: Moscow's group stage will be held on June 4-7, while the playoffs will take place at the VTB Ice Palace on June 9-11.

The event will also host a cosplay tournament with approximately $3,500 on the line.

Further details are expected in the coming weeks, such as qualifier dates and invited teams.Team Liquid are an expected invite since they were the champions of the first EPICENTER event.

RELATED: Team Liquid defeat Newbee, win EPICENTER

While this is the third event dubbed EPICENTER: Moscow, this is only the second Dota 2 event, as the previous event was a CS:GO tournament. That was won by the former Team Diginitas roster now part of North.

Dennis "Tarmanydyn" Gonzales is a news editor for theScore esports who enjoys whiskey, D&D and first-picking Abaddon Slardar Clinkz Medusa Oracle a P90 my Souvenir Negev Discipline Priest Pharah. You can follow him on Twitter.

Packers LB Blake Martinez: 'During the next session out in Green Bay I want to speak to our president about sponsoring [an esports] team in the near future'

by 4d ago
Thumbnail image courtesy of Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Green Bay Packers linebacker Blake Martinez isn't just a big Dota 2 fan, he's also an advocate for the game and esports in general among his NFL teammates.

Martinez has been streaming Dota 2 for charity almost every day since mid-February, and he was recently invited to MoonduckTV's Kiev Major Qualifier hub and helped cast dozens of Dota games in the lead up to the Major. theScore esports caught up with Martinez to talk about how esports are perceived in the NFL, how he got into Dota 2 and his plans to pitch the Packers on esports.

How did you get into Dota?

The way I got into Dota was an interesting story because my friends were all playing in our living room my sophomore year of college at Stanford and kept egging me on to play with them but I was so focused on football that I didn’t take up the offer but after a week or so they finally got me to try and I fell in love with the game and was one of the things I do to get my mind off of football!

Do you keep up with Dota during the season? Either playing or keeping up with the esports scene?

I watch Dota 24/7 whenever I am stretching or in the ice tub or any down time that I get from film watching and all other football obligations. Also I only play on our off days because there isn't enough time on a daily basis during the season to get games in! It was tough my rookie year, I didn't play Dota for about 6-7 months.

What position do you play in Dota? Who are your favorite heroes to play?

I mainly play the carry role and the shot caller of my team when I am in solo ranked, but I know how to play all positions since a lot of Dota players like to instantly pick the core roles regardless of skill. My favorite heroes are Storm Spirit, Luna, AM, Earthshaker, and Juggernaut.

What was your worst solo queue experience?

Worst solo queue experience happened about a couple weeks ago, I had a offlane Underlord that went afk farming the whole game (key note was that we were still winning the game without him). Then at about 30 mins the Underlord came out of the jungle with a rapier and fed it to the enemy team and we lost the game. Then I asked him why he did that and he said "I hate Monkey King pickers so I didn't want to win...."

What's your favorite Dota team? Why?

My favorite Dota team was the original No Diggity team that Synderen started, because I love the underdog role in any situation and they proved to everyone how good they are. It was awesome when they made it to the main stage at TI.

If you could play a game with any Dota pro, who would it be and why?

The one person I would want to play a game with would probably be Fata from Bears because I have just heard how amazing of a player he is, and I would just want to learn from his play!

What prompted you to start streaming? Do you find it hard to balance offseason training with your daily streaming?

The main reason I started streaming was because I play this game so much and it is one of my favorite hobbies, so I thought it would be a great way to use it in a beneficial way! That meaning I use it to donate money to the Saint Jude’s children's cancer research program! All the money I make from streaming goes to Saint Jude’s also every 100 followers I get I donate $50 to the foundation as well!

What do you think of the growing interest from traditional sports in esports? Do you think the NFL is going to get involved, given that it's been mostly from the NBA so far?

I think it is awesome how much sports and esports are meshing together! I knew it would happen sooner than later, because every professional sports player plays video games of some sort and the competitive aspect always catches the eyes of the real sports players! I think soon the NFL will get involved, and it is my mission to be the one that gets that to happen as soon as possible! During the next session out in Green Bay I want to speak to our president about sponsoring a team in the near future.

Are esports and gaming things that people talk about in the Packers locker room?

A lot of us talk about gaming because everyone plays console games and we have massive tournaments in Madden, FIFA, and UFC, but not too many conversations about esports competitions until I got there! I think every day I got asked "what are you watching on your phone" and I would always have to explain what Dota is, what Twitch is and the grand scheme of the tournaments, prizes pool, TI etc... and after I talk to anyone about it they think it is the coolest and greatest thing so hopefully that is a good start in easing its way into the NFL!

What is the most played game among the Packers' players?

The most played game is probably FIFA, I think there is a tournament in our game lounge almost everyday!

What's it like casting the Major qualifiers? Is casting something you've wanted to do before?

Casting was an amazing, crazy experience because I had no Idea what I was doing, but the people at Moonduck were extremely helpful in teaching me the ins and outs of casting. Also they just made it a fun and enjoyable time throughout the qualifiers. It was always something I wanted to try but never thought I would be able to do!

Jeremy Lin is noted in the community for being a pro athlete with an interest in Dota, he even has a team named after him. Could you beat Jeremy Lin in lane?

Yes I could easily beat Jeremy Lin in any lane or game!

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

Daniel Rosen is a news editor for theScore esports. You can follow him on Twitter.

theScore esports Podcast ep. 6: Conrad Janzen on The International, Dota's Major system and Kiev

by 5d ago

1:55: Conrad Janzen on Kiev invites, the amount of Chinese teams
3:09: Janzen picks OG to win Kiev, Digital Chaos as the dark horse
4:50: "100 minute games are very easily possible" at Kiev
6:05: Why teams won't be holding back at DAC
7:15: TI prize pool "always going to be more," Valve will find a way
8:30: On the future of Dota 2: "Have we reached peak Dota? I don't think so"
10:03: Ded gaem? Why Dota 2 won't go the way of StarCraft
11:53: How to improve the Major system
17:37: Teams like OG, EG and DC will benefit from 7.03 changes
18:23: "Monkey King is going to be a huge presence" in 7.03
21:00: The time Janzen and Arteezy got drunk and debated swords vs. guns
25:28: Kyle on being on SXSW's esports panel with Dyrus
29:21: Ryan hijacks the podcast and talks about Thorin
31:26: Enter Dennis Gonzales, theScore esports' Valve guy
32:48: What Dota's Major system could learn from CS:GO
34:21: Team Liquid, OG among the teams to watch at Kiev
35:44: Has Valve given up on NA when it comes to Dota?
37:57: Esports audiences are getting burnt out
42:03: Jungling in Dota? "I'd say you're kind of screwed"

Click or tap here to listen in on SoundCloud.

Pick your lane, oil up your meat hooks… and don’t think too hard about that metaphor, because this week on theScore esports Podcast, we’re talking Dota.

Hosts Colin, Ryan and Kyle sit down over Skype with former Cloud9 player manager and current Twitch partnerships team member Conrad Janzen to talk about The International, The Kiev Major, and the state of Dota 2 today.

Janzen breaks down his picks for who will succeed at Kiev and DAC, why The International’s prize pool will forever increase year after year, and gives us some insight into how Valve’s Major system could be improved.

Next up it’s theScore esports’ own Dennis Gonzales, who has his own thoughts on who’s looking hot heading into Kiev, as well what the competitive Dota scene could learn CS:GO.

Colin McNeil is a supervising editor for theScore esports. You can follow him on Twitter.

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